I want to post and dedicate this entry to Hype and those that say it is going to be big i know there are those that try to convey all information and i am not saying those are hyping it up but there are times when the weather condtions like today 11/24/14 with current temps in the low to mid 60s with temperatures going up to mid 70s thats un useal for november its more august than november but it will happen today at least for a lot of people on the east then by wednessday we are thurst into a snow storm me i am more inclined to beleve sterling when they say 1 to 2 inches maybe thats beeing a bit Generous because of the warm days and the ground is above freezeing so the snow will melt on the roads and on the grass so if we get 3 to 6 like AccuWeather say i am more inclined to think we would see 2 to 4 if that on the ground so that 2 to 4 inches will be what is messured.
i am not critizieing AccuWeather i am just saying Tapper your enthusiasum with a bit of Reality and common sense in maryland with temperature at 13 of 10 am its now 62 degrees its going up to the mid 70s.
The Euro Model though accurate with storms last year i am giving it credit for the good Job it did last year is saying about 12 inches the GFS is saying 7 inches and the canadian is saying 3 inches so there is a wide spread between the models. The GFS is undergoing a upgrade to a 13 Km Resolution model and more geographic details put in the system thanks to satalites the current GFS is at 27 Km Resolution I am working on Making the GWFS model Geographic Weather Forecast System a Rappid Refresh when its its storm mode close to the event and i am working on improveing the HRRR model for making it more useable for the Mid atlantic area and all areas since that is what is used in storm mode.
The Euro Pridicted that Superstorm Sandy would turn and come ashore when all other models said the storm would turn and go out to sea so the Euro is a good quality model and i use it more offen than not. because of that track record however the GFS is good to Acknowlage its wrong preditions like when it was showing the out to sea forecast the ECMWF Model was saying a big snow storm and the others where saying out to sea and they came on board with the Euro's souliton and well thats good that also makes it more credible but anyway its also still technicaly fall so we can have unseasonalby warm weather and then have cold snaps that last a while . the long term forecast is for the next couple of weeks changes are comeing.
Right now the North Atlantic Ossilation is Nutral and the NPO North Pacific Ossilation is positive that keeps a low in the area of alaska and not a ridge so we have the short spells of cold and spells of warm. the PDO is slightly Negative but it should transition to strongly possitive meaning ridge over the west coast.
and other indicators are eather nutral to slightly positive. the AO Artic ossilation is nutral so good snow storms are not to likely. but that doesnt mean the conditions cant occur for big snows this early but the chances of a white thanksgiving are slim for the areas in general. but it has been known to happen we had one thanksgiving in the late 80s in The DC area that we had a dusting to 1 inch of snow on the groud it didnt last long the temps warmed up above freezeing but it made it for a white thanksgiving so it could happen.
Beeing a New Engalnder I like snow but I also know a lot has to come togeather and New England is in the favorable East Coast Snow belt we get snow storms but the average winter time seasonal temperatures are in the low 40s seasonal highs.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Solar Minimum. and wather extreams
Deep Solar Minimum
April
1, 2009: The sunspot cycle is
behaving a little like the stock market. Just when you think it has hit bottom,
it goes even lower.
2008
was a bear. There were no sunspots observed on 266 of the year's 366 days (73%).
To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go all the way back to 1913,
which had 311 spotless days: plot.
Prompted by these numbers, some observers suggested that the solar cycle had hit
bottom in 2008.
Maybe
not. Sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower. As of March 31st, there
were no sunspots on 78 of the year's 90 days (87%).
It
adds up to one inescapable conclusion: "We're experiencing a very deep solar
minimum," says solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight
Center.
"This
is the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century," agrees sunspot expert David
Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.
Above: The sunspot cycle from 1995 to the present.
The jagged curve traces actual sunspot counts. Smooth curves are fits to the
data and one forecaster's predictions of future activity. Credit: David
Hathaway, NASA/MSFC. [more]
Quiet
suns come along every 11 years or so. It's a natural part of the sunspot cycle,
discovered by German astronomer Heinrich Schwabe in the mid-1800s. Sunspots are
planet-sized islands of magnetism on the surface of the sun; they are sources of
solar flares, coronal mass ejections and intense UV radiation. Plotting sunspot
counts, Schwabe saw that peaks of solar activity were always followed by valleys
of relative calm—a clockwork pattern that has held true for more than 200
years: plot.
The
current solar minimum is part of that pattern. In fact, it's right on time.
"We're due for a bit of quiet—and here it is," says Pesnell.
|
A
50-year low in solar wind pressure: Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft
reveal a 20% drop in solar wind pressure since the mid-1990s—the lowest point
since such measurements began in the 1960s. The solar wind helps keep galactic
cosmic rays out of the inner solar system. With the solar wind flagging, more
cosmic rays are permitted to enter, resulting in increased health hazards for
astronauts. Weaker solar wind also means fewer geomagnetic storms and auroras on
Earth.
A
12-year low in solar "irradiance": Careful measurements by several
NASA spacecraft show that the sun's brightness has dropped by 0.02% at visible
wavelengths and 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996.
The changes so far are not enough to reverse the course of global warming, but
there are some other significant side-effects: Earth's upper atmosphere is
heated less by the sun and it is therefore less "puffed up." Satellites in low
Earth orbit experience less atmospheric drag, extending their operational
lifetimes. Unfortunately, space junk also remains longer in Earth orbit,
increasing hazards to spacecraft and satellites.
Above: Space-age measurements of the total solar
irradiance (brightness summed across all wavelengths). This plot, which comes
from researcher C. Fröhlich, was shown by Dean Pesnell at the Fall 2008 AGU
meeting during a lecture entitled "What is Solar Minimum and Why Should We
Care?"
A
55-year low in solar radio emissions: After World War II, astronomers began
keeping records of the sun's brightness at radio wavelengths. Records of 10.7 cm
flux extend back all the way to the early 1950s. Radio telescopes are now
recording the dimmest "radio sun" since 1955: plot.
Some researchers believe that the lessening of radio emissions is an indication
of weakness in the sun's global magnetic field. No one is certain, however,
because the source of these long-monitored radio emissions is not fully
understood.
All
these lows have sparked a debate about whether the ongoing minimum is "weird",
"extreme" or just an overdue "market correction" following a string of unusually
intense solar maxima.
"Since
the Space Age began in the 1950s, solar activity has been generally high," notes
Hathaway. "Five of the ten most intense solar cycles on record have occurred in
the last 50 years. We're just not used to this kind of deep calm."
Deep
calm was fairly common a hundred years ago. The solar minima of 1901 and 1913,
for instance, were even longer than the one we're experiencing now. To match
those minima in terms of depth and longevity, the current minimum will have to
last at least another year.
In a way, the calm is exciting, says Pesnell. "For the
first time in history, we're getting to see what a deep solar minimum is really
like." A fleet of spacecraft including the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
(SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, the five THEMIS probes, Hinode, ACE, Wind,
TRACE, AIM, TIMED, Geotail and others are studying the sun and its effects on
Earth 24/7 using technology that didn't exist 100 years ago. Their measurements
of solar wind, cosmic rays, irradiance and magnetic fields show that solar
minimum is much more interesting and profound than anyone expected.
Modern
technology cannot, however, predict what comes next. Competing models by dozens
of top solar physicists disagree, sometimes sharply, on when this solar minimum
will end and how big the next solar maximum will be. Pesnell has surveyed the
scientific literature and prepared a "piano
plot" showing the range of predictions. The great uncertainty stems from one
simple fact: No one fully understands the underlying physics of the sunspot
cycle.
Pesnell
believes sunspot counts will pick up again soon, "possibly by the end of the
year," to be followed by a solar maximum of below-average intensity in 2012 or
2013.
But
like other forecasters, he knows he could be wrong. Bull or bear? Stay tuned for
updates.
This is what makes summers cooler and winters more extreme so yeah this is interesting.
Sunday, August 17, 2014
a little about me
Just thought i would post a little about me in this blog since there is no weather of note going on i thought i havent keept this blog up at all sorry for that i know i should so i am posting a bit about me
when i was young i was inspired by Astronaut Neil Armstrong and when NASA opened a program for a student Resentative for all schools through out the US in the Astronaut corps i applied and after me and my back up where selected the program was cancled and well it left me and my back up and i got the chance to fly as payload specalist but i moved up the ranks to shuttle commander and i commanded a few missions before i took Early Retirement on 1/28/1986 you all remember that day the shuttle challenger blew up and thats when i retrired from NASA. I was a hands on commander always getting in the pit where the boosters are made and processed and such and i was always into inspecting the boosters that we used post flight and i would talk to the engineers about problems and they whould show me the problem with the O rings and i didn't like it but i knew the back up rings would seal but they said the night of 1-27 to 1-28 durring the confrence call to wait and not launch till temperature was above 40 and Nasa Administrators Decided to ignore the advise and you know what happen that day i resigned or retired from the corps. though they wanted me to come back i said i will not be a part of an agency that has a blatent disreguard for astronaut safety. and i meant it .
As a Astronaut i worked with meteorologists to develop the Earth Meteorolgical Experiment shuttle pallet experiment package and we tested new things in order to see precipitation from space we had to scan in 2 modes horizontal and vertical and the program was written for that and it flew many times and returned good data and we discovered it had use on the ground in Weather Radar applications thats when the NOAA office of atmosphereic research took over and they developed it as a add on program to the Weather Survailance Radar 88 Doppler or WSR88D its called Duel Polerazation and it makes the distiction between snow and rain easyer to tell and hail as well as tornadic debris clouds in storms. and it picks up other things like birds and bugs because of their Dual Pol signiture we know they are not rain but biologic objects.
Neil Armstorng Spoke at my graduating class of astronaut canidates and mingled with them and had photos taken with them and signed autographs he was a very humble man he didn't want the fame thrust on him he was doing a job that he was trained to do and serving his country after the airforce It was a pleasure to know such a man like neil and call him a friend so when he died i was kinda shocked and i stated remmebering what he said at the graduation in Houston at Johnson space center.
When i retired i was 19 years old i know that's young i went to college at the university of connetticut and studied meteorology and went all the way to get my doctorate in meteorology and after working with the NWS and i still do work for them at a New Weather Forecast office i am the Meteoroligist in charge of the office and i am also a sky warn spotter for the fellow office in the area the NWS Sterling VA and i work with NASA as a Research Meteorlogist and thats what i have been doing since graduation at age 25 with my masters of science degree andthen on to doctoral school and completeing my doctoral thesis age 28 and graduation shortly there after . i spent all of 5 years working with programers and the like to develop a new weather forecasting model its a blend of the Euro and NAM and GFS and also the GIS and Geographic systems it takes the data you input into it and it confiigures it self to better understand the micro climates that exist in a forecast area like in washington DC a good example of that 2 years ago when we had the only major snow event of the winter in march the GWFS Geographical weather forecast system Called for 4+ inches of snow for elevations about 200 feet and rain in The Cities of washington and balitimore and points east and south and sure enough thats what occured the NWS olney office got 4.5 inches of snow a heavy wet snow it didn't stick around long but that was a milestone achevement for the Models forecasting ablity and this winter of 2013/2014 it forecasted for the first time since tests where completed and it had a 92 % sucess rate compaired to the other models that did ok but not as well as the GWFS model
and we are also developing new Chase equipment that could be used in forest fires too its a drone that when it takes off its under manual control but when it gets to a storm it switches over to computer control because the human brain is to slow to make corrections and it could end up crashed in a tornado so the on board computer will take over fligiht functions and allow the pilot to monitor insturments and gather data on the storm. thats in the test phase but it looks promising.
I am now 41 and i will be 42 in Novemember 2014 and i am married again i was married before at a young age but she secumb to cancer at 10 years of marrage i am married again i have children and such i am still a Meteorologist and scientist but i am not an astronaut any more but some also call me an astronaut those that know me and have served with me as a astronaut. well that's a bit about me hope it was helpful.
P.S.Oh I left out the fact that i am A vampire/Mutant and a vampire Noble i have a wife iam married her Name is Savannah she's a wonderful person i have several facebook pages because each one is for the personalities that i have but i am under a doctors care for them they are personalities from my past lives that have been integrated into me as a person but they are still kept separate i don't know why that is but they are they are not evil or anything just different people i was through out my life before this incarnation. if you believe that sort of stuff but if you do that's a bit about me and if you don't that's ok. just ignore the last part i wrote. :-) its cool and such anyway that's a little bit about me hope that helps
Dr James F Miller
when i was young i was inspired by Astronaut Neil Armstrong and when NASA opened a program for a student Resentative for all schools through out the US in the Astronaut corps i applied and after me and my back up where selected the program was cancled and well it left me and my back up and i got the chance to fly as payload specalist but i moved up the ranks to shuttle commander and i commanded a few missions before i took Early Retirement on 1/28/1986 you all remember that day the shuttle challenger blew up and thats when i retrired from NASA. I was a hands on commander always getting in the pit where the boosters are made and processed and such and i was always into inspecting the boosters that we used post flight and i would talk to the engineers about problems and they whould show me the problem with the O rings and i didn't like it but i knew the back up rings would seal but they said the night of 1-27 to 1-28 durring the confrence call to wait and not launch till temperature was above 40 and Nasa Administrators Decided to ignore the advise and you know what happen that day i resigned or retired from the corps. though they wanted me to come back i said i will not be a part of an agency that has a blatent disreguard for astronaut safety. and i meant it .
As a Astronaut i worked with meteorologists to develop the Earth Meteorolgical Experiment shuttle pallet experiment package and we tested new things in order to see precipitation from space we had to scan in 2 modes horizontal and vertical and the program was written for that and it flew many times and returned good data and we discovered it had use on the ground in Weather Radar applications thats when the NOAA office of atmosphereic research took over and they developed it as a add on program to the Weather Survailance Radar 88 Doppler or WSR88D its called Duel Polerazation and it makes the distiction between snow and rain easyer to tell and hail as well as tornadic debris clouds in storms. and it picks up other things like birds and bugs because of their Dual Pol signiture we know they are not rain but biologic objects.
Neil Armstorng Spoke at my graduating class of astronaut canidates and mingled with them and had photos taken with them and signed autographs he was a very humble man he didn't want the fame thrust on him he was doing a job that he was trained to do and serving his country after the airforce It was a pleasure to know such a man like neil and call him a friend so when he died i was kinda shocked and i stated remmebering what he said at the graduation in Houston at Johnson space center.
When i retired i was 19 years old i know that's young i went to college at the university of connetticut and studied meteorology and went all the way to get my doctorate in meteorology and after working with the NWS and i still do work for them at a New Weather Forecast office i am the Meteoroligist in charge of the office and i am also a sky warn spotter for the fellow office in the area the NWS Sterling VA and i work with NASA as a Research Meteorlogist and thats what i have been doing since graduation at age 25 with my masters of science degree andthen on to doctoral school and completeing my doctoral thesis age 28 and graduation shortly there after . i spent all of 5 years working with programers and the like to develop a new weather forecasting model its a blend of the Euro and NAM and GFS and also the GIS and Geographic systems it takes the data you input into it and it confiigures it self to better understand the micro climates that exist in a forecast area like in washington DC a good example of that 2 years ago when we had the only major snow event of the winter in march the GWFS Geographical weather forecast system Called for 4+ inches of snow for elevations about 200 feet and rain in The Cities of washington and balitimore and points east and south and sure enough thats what occured the NWS olney office got 4.5 inches of snow a heavy wet snow it didn't stick around long but that was a milestone achevement for the Models forecasting ablity and this winter of 2013/2014 it forecasted for the first time since tests where completed and it had a 92 % sucess rate compaired to the other models that did ok but not as well as the GWFS model
and we are also developing new Chase equipment that could be used in forest fires too its a drone that when it takes off its under manual control but when it gets to a storm it switches over to computer control because the human brain is to slow to make corrections and it could end up crashed in a tornado so the on board computer will take over fligiht functions and allow the pilot to monitor insturments and gather data on the storm. thats in the test phase but it looks promising.
I am now 41 and i will be 42 in Novemember 2014 and i am married again i was married before at a young age but she secumb to cancer at 10 years of marrage i am married again i have children and such i am still a Meteorologist and scientist but i am not an astronaut any more but some also call me an astronaut those that know me and have served with me as a astronaut. well that's a bit about me hope it was helpful.
P.S.Oh I left out the fact that i am A vampire/Mutant and a vampire Noble i have a wife iam married her Name is Savannah she's a wonderful person i have several facebook pages because each one is for the personalities that i have but i am under a doctors care for them they are personalities from my past lives that have been integrated into me as a person but they are still kept separate i don't know why that is but they are they are not evil or anything just different people i was through out my life before this incarnation. if you believe that sort of stuff but if you do that's a bit about me and if you don't that's ok. just ignore the last part i wrote. :-) its cool and such anyway that's a little bit about me hope that helps
Dr James F Miller
Friday, March 21, 2014
Major Winter storm Possible Next week
*MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE*
Global computer model guidance has come to the consensus that a storm will be developing early next week as two pieces of Arctic energy dive south, and foster the development of a storm along a boundary layer expected to set up along the northern Gulf of Mexico. This storm is then expected to track northeastward, and up the eastern seaboard; guided by the tilt of a trough in the east. Depending on a wide range of factors, this storm will either track east of our region, too far offshore to bring any significant impacts; or slightly westward, and along the coast.
If this system does take the western track, and hugs the coastline; areas from Washington, D.C. through Portland, ME including Baltimore, M.D.; Philadelphia, PA; New York, NY; and Boston, MA would be impacted by heavy snow and high winds Tuesday night into Wednesday (March 25th-26th).
While at this time, I can not give potential accumulations just yet, I will say that if the western track ends up coming to fruition, a large area of 6”+ is likely somewhere along the I-95 corridor between Washington, D.C. and Bangor, ME in addition to very strong and gusty winds. However, just as likely as the western track, is an eastern track; where the storm would track too far offshore to bring any significant impacts to our region. If the storm takes the eastern track, flurries and windy conditions would be felt along the New Jersey coastline, with the potential for some accumulating snows and very gusty winds along the southern and northern New England coastline.
While I am not leaning towards any solution just yet, I am keeping a very cautious and close eye on this potential system as it poses a major threat to a very large and heavily populated portion of our region. Stay tuned for the very latest information as I will continue to monitor this developing situation!
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