Hype

I want to post and dedicate this  entry to Hype and those that say  it is going to be big  i know there are those that  try to convey all information and i am not saying those are hyping it up but there are times when the weather condtions like today 11/24/14  with current temps in the low to mid 60s  with temperatures going up to mid 70s  thats un useal for november its more august than november  but it will happen today at least for a lot of people on the east   then by wednessday we are thurst into a snow storm  me i am more inclined to beleve sterling  when they say 1 to 2 inches  maybe thats beeing a bit Generous because of the warm days  and the ground is above freezeing  so the snow will melt on the roads and on the grass so if we get 3 to 6 like  AccuWeather say i am more inclined to think we would see  2 to 4 if that  on the ground so that 2 to 4 inches will be what is messured.


i am not critizieing  AccuWeather i am just saying  Tapper your enthusiasum with  a bit of Reality  and common sense  in maryland with temperature at 13 of 10 am its now 62 degrees  its going up to the mid 70s.


The Euro Model though accurate with storms last year i am giving it credit  for the good Job it did last year is saying about 12 inches the GFS is saying 7 inches and the canadian is saying 3 inches   so there is a wide spread between the models. The GFS is undergoing  a upgrade to a 13 Km  Resolution model and more geographic details put in the system thanks to satalites  the current GFS is at 27 Km Resolution  I am working on Making the GWFS  model Geographic Weather Forecast System  a Rappid Refresh when its its storm mode close to the event  and i am working on improveing the HRRR model for making it more useable for the Mid atlantic area and all areas since that is what is used in storm mode.

The Euro Pridicted that Superstorm Sandy would turn and come ashore when all other models said the storm would turn and go out to sea so the Euro is a good quality model and i use it more offen than not.  because of that track record however the GFS is good to Acknowlage its wrong preditions like when it was showing the out to sea forecast the ECMWF Model was saying a big snow storm and the others where saying out to sea and they came on board with the Euro's souliton and well thats good that also makes it more credible but anyway its also still technicaly fall so we can have unseasonalby warm weather and then have  cold snaps that last a while . the long term forecast is for the next couple of weeks changes are comeing.

Right now the North Atlantic Ossilation is Nutral  and the NPO North Pacific Ossilation is positive that keeps a low in the area of alaska  and not a ridge so we have the short spells of cold and spells of warm. the PDO is slightly Negative but it should transition to strongly possitive meaning ridge over the west coast.

 and other indicators are eather nutral to slightly positive. the AO Artic ossilation is nutral  so good snow storms are  not to likely.  but that doesnt mean the conditions  cant occur for big snows this early but the chances of a white thanksgiving are slim for the areas in general. but it has been known to happen we had one thanksgiving in the late 80s  in The DC area that we had a dusting to 1 inch of snow on the groud it didnt last long the temps warmed up above freezeing but it made it for a white  thanksgiving so it could happen.

Beeing a New Engalnder I like snow but I also know a lot has to come togeather  and New England is in the favorable East Coast Snow belt  we get snow storms but the average winter time seasonal temperatures are in the low 40s  seasonal highs.